Japan's threat awareness
There is one thing that many Japanese people, including the Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces, have misunderstood. It is a delusion that the current international order and war trends will continue. Bismarck, the German minister, said, "Fools learn from their own experiences, and wise men learn from history." Seems to be delusional.
Regarding the current threat perception of Japan, in the words of Minister of Defense Kishi of Japan in the 3rd year of Reiwa
"Looking at the area around Japan, China continues to make unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Around the Senkaku Islands, which is a territory peculiar to Japan, Chinese maritime police vessels connect to the continental zone almost every day. At the same time, it has repeatedly invaded our territorial waters. "
This perception is correct. The Ministry of Defense is developing its defense capabilities with the above-mentioned worsening situation in mind. Needless to say, Japan's main security efforts are increasing the intensity of China's unilateral attempts to change the status quo in the southwestern islands, which is not based on the existing international order. Is aimed at responding to. Considering the actions of the US military from a geopolitical point of view, it is no exaggeration to say that this includes China's response to the invasion of Taiwan. reference
According to the Defense of Japan, the operations of the Maritime and Air Self-Defense Forces, including the Ground Self-Defense Force, focus on national defense in the southwest. In the southwestern operation, the ground forces will be transported from the mainland to eliminate the invasion while ensuring air superiority and maritime superiority. The Air Self-Defense Force conducts missile defense and anti-aircraft operations, the JMSDF conducts anti-submarine and anti-ship operations, and the GSDF conducts anti-landing operations and landing operations. Naturally, defense capability development will prepare the system for carrying out the operations listed on the left. Reference: Defense of Japan
Development of defense capabilities based on threats
In addition, in the 31st Medium-Term Defense Plan, which is the basis of the defense capability development plan, after mentioning the threat recognition mentioned above, cross-territorial operations and the rapid development of military technology, etc.
"In addition, regarding preparations for invasion situations such as landing invasions that mobilized large-scale land troops, which were mainly envisioned during the Cold War, we will respond to changes in the situation in the future by thoroughly streamlining and rationalizing them. We will retain the minimum specialized knowledge and skills necessary for maintaining and passing on. "
Is mentioned. In other words, "Since it is not expected that a large-scale force will invade the land, the defense force to respond to this will be drastically reduced." A typical example is to reduce the number of tanks owned by 1200 during the Cold War to 300 and the number of artillery from 1000 to 300. shiryou1_part1.pdf (cao.go.jp)
In fact, the Ground Self-Defense Force has removed tanks from the mainland and replaced them with mobile combat vehicles (105mm rifles, WAPC bodies). Since mobile combat vehicles are wheeled (tires), they cannot be deployed and operated in places other than roads like tanks. The more undeveloped countryside and mountains, the smaller the range of operations.
Also, I don't really have the 105mm rifle, which is the main equipment. As long as there are no tanks, the main goal of a mobile combat vehicle is the opponent's tank. 105mm cannot penetrate tank armor. On the contrary, the armor of mobile combat vehicles is said to be between tanks and light armored mobile vehicles, and if it is shot with a 120 mm class gun, it will be destroyed with a single blow. Therefore, mobile tanks cannot take the place of tanks. If the number of tanks is reduced based on the current situation, full-scale land combat will be difficult.
It is generally said that it takes more than 10 years to develop and deploy the main equipment. Equipment isn't just about deploying, it's meaningless unless you train it many times and use it in your operations. Perhaps it will take about 15 years to spread the troops all over the country evenly. Therefore, if the international situation suddenly changes and it becomes necessary to prepare for a full-scale invasion, it will take a certain number of years.
However, focusing on the current threat and developing defense capabilities is unavoidable given the tight budget situation. Even if a wide range of defense capabilities are being developed with an eye on the future, if the "current threat" cannot be dealt with, there will be neither a former nor a child.
History of war
The following is a list of the major wars in the world since 1800. Both are large-scale wars that mobilize tens of thousands to tens of millions of people.
1803-15 years Napoleonic Wars
1807-29 Spain, Bolivia, Greece, Mexico War of Independence
1840-42 First Opium War
1851-65 Taiping Rebellion
1856-60 Second Opium War (Arrow War)
1904-05 Russo-Japanese War
1912-13: 1st and 2nd Balkan Wars
1914-18 World War I
1937-45 Sino-Japanese War
1939-45 World War II
1945-89 US-Soviet Cold War (no direct battle)
1948-78 1st-4th Middle East War
1950-53 Korean War
1960-75 Vietnam War
1979-89 Soviet invasion of Afghanistan
1980-88 Iran-Iraq War
1990-91 Gulf War
2001-21 Afghan War
2003-11 Iraq War
We have omitted the wars and small things that are not familiar to the Japanese, but looking back on history, we can see that humankind is always at war. There are various kinds of wars, such as the war between the government and the rebels, the war of independence, the invasion of other countries, and the border dispute.
In the midst of many wars, there are some changes in trends. One is the Napoleonic War. Until then, local princes had hired mercenaries, but since Napoleon, the national war, in which citizens participate in the war, has become the mainstream.
The purpose of the war itself has also changed. Western imperialist wars to colonize other countries have been fought in the late 15th and late 19th centuries. After the end of imperialism, after the war for the purpose of expanding the territory of World Wars 1 and 2, the battle in which each colony became independent became the mainstream. Recently, South Sudan in 2011 became independent of Sudan after the war.
Since World War II, there have been no (except for some) wars in which large troops overrun the nation. However, since Russia's invasion of Crimea in 2014, the form of the war has changed significantly. The operation in Russia's Crimean was called a hybrid warfare, which instigated the people with disinformation and mobilized large-scale irregular troops to virtually occupy part of the country. It can be said that the flaws in the existing system, which is internationally opposed by the military to the military and to the police by the police, have been successfully achieved.
China is also expanding into the territory of surrounding countries by all means through the peacetime activities of maritime militia and the systematic acquisition of land and facilities such as airports and ports in other countries by private businesses.
Japan's perception of the threat mentioned at the beginning is based on China's invasion of the Nansei Islands and Taiwan's invasion, but it is thought to be in line with these trends.
From 130 to 140 years, the war has changed from imperialist colonial acquisition war to territorial expansion war to independence war from colonies to substantial territorial expansion war. The Russo-Japanese War is already destroying the existing international order, but given its ambition to expand its territory, it is unclear when it will shift to a war that involves full-scale land operations.
Belief
Looking back on the experience of the Ministry of Defense and the remarks of VIPs and experts, I think that many people think that there will be no large-scale invasion of mainland Japan in the future. Will end up. It may be a border dispute or a skirmish over a small island now, but I don't know if it will be in that situation decades later. Whether or not to make a large-scale invasion of mainland Japan depends on the will of the leaders at that time, considering the current situation of China and Russia, which already have the ability to invade. The will will be overturned in a short period of time triggered by something. You can think that a large-scale invasion will occur more easily than the Japanese think. At that time, if you do not have the ability to respond to the invasion, you have no choice but to be invaded.
Japan has relied on the United States to neglect to improve its defense capabilities. Neglect of defense development may come at the cost of losing national and human rights. Of the other countries other than Japan, the threatened countries maintain more than 2% of defense spending because there is a sense of crisis with an eye on the future, such as the invasion of their own country due to changes in the situation. It takes time to develop defense capabilities. And there is no guarantee that the United States will continue to be involved in Japan's security. It is important for the prosperity of the nation and the people to prepare in detail enough to respond to the invasion of the mainland that may occur in the future.
