Progress so far
Since the end of last year, government forces and ethnic minorities in Digre have continued to fight in Ethiopia. More than 1,000 residents from Tigrinya have been detained by the government, according to a spokesman for the United Nations Human Rights Institution. The detention is said to have continued even after the invasion occurred. The war between the Ethiopian army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has killed thousands and evacuated more than two million in the past year.
The fighting has been going on since last year and is now approaching the capital Addis Ababa. Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abbey has announced a state of emergency on November 2, instructing residents to arm themselves, and is poised to engage in a thorough battle.
On November 8, TPLF advanced to about 300-400km northeast of Addis Ababa.
Around this time, thousands of anti-Western demonstrations were held in front of Addis Ababa's embassies in Britain and the United States. The reason is that "Europe and the United States are spreading fake news."
On November 16th, the United States called on its citizens, who are also in France and Germany, to evacuate on the 23rd. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 210 Japanese people lived there, but many of them left the country. We strongly urge the rest of the residents to consider leaving the country.
Invaded about 220km northeast of Addis Ababa on November 25th.
On November 26, the Japanese government decided to dispatch an information gathering unit (advance unit) to Djibouti. It is said that it departed on November 27th.
The US Army (probably the Central Command in charge of Ethiopia) also has ranger units, special forces, and several ships on standby nearby.
On November 26, the World Food Program (WFP) announced that an estimated 9.4 million people are suffering from serious food shortages, mainly in northern Tigray and Amhara. In addition, much of the support has been stalled due to the blockade of roads by government forces.
UN experts also warned that hate speeches targeting specific ethnic groups are rampant and that "the risk of genocide is increasing."
The Ethiopian government warned in a statement on the 25th that "we will take appropriate measures for those who support terrorists in the name of freedom of expression." Prohibition of reporting on battles and war conditions.
Analysis of the situation in Ethiopia as of November 25
An analysis a few days ago predicted that the Ethiopian army would win because of Ethiopian personnel, weapons, supply, land and standby benefits, citing the extension of the rebel supply line (700-800km).
If the rebels were to win, it would be an invasion that was confused by the "participation of the Eritrean army".
On the other hand, as far as the current reports are concerned, the Ethiopian army seems to be inferior. Is that possible? I doubt the enormous assistance of other countries' forces and other countries.
It would be impossible for the Self-Defense Forces to continue fighting for a year, extend the supply line for nearly 1000km in areas where supply is difficult, such as Ethiopia, and beat the regular army. Without the support of other countries, food and fuel could be procured, but ammunition and explosives could not be maintained.
As of the 25th, it is 220km northeast, but it is expected that it will be closer to the capital in the future.
Protection of Japanese nationals of the Self-Defense Forces
→ Ethiopian Army vs. Tigre National Liberation Front (gsdf.info)
An analysis a few days ago predicted that the Ethiopian army would win because of Ethiopian personnel, weapons, supply, land and standby benefits, citing the extension of the rebel supply line (700-800km).
If the rebels were to win, it would be an invasion that was confused by the "participation of the Eritrean army".
On the other hand, as far as the current reports are concerned, the Ethiopian army seems to be inferior. Is that possible? I doubt the enormous assistance of other countries' forces and other countries.
It would be impossible for the Self-Defense Forces to continue fighting for a year, extend the supply line for nearly 1000km in areas where supply is difficult, such as Ethiopia, and beat the regular army. Without the support of other countries, food and fuel could be procured, but ammunition and explosives could not be maintained.
As of the 25th, it is 220km northeast, but it is expected that it will be closer to the capital in the future.
Protection of Japanese nationals of the Self-Defense Forces
Currently, the advance team of the Self-Defense Forces is advancing to Djibouti, so if it is a commercial aircraft, it should have arrived on the 29th. Considering the situation, SDF aircraft should be dispatched on the 30th or 31st.
At present, order is maintained and at least the capital is safe, so will we dispatch based on Article 84-3 "Corporate Protection" of the Corps Law? This requires approval from the target country. Is the Ethiopian government receiving foreign troops? Even if Article 84-4 "Overseas Corporate Transport" is used as in the case of dispatch to Afghanistan, the consent of the receiving country is indispensable. (Under the law, there is a possibility of being shot down on the grounds of violation of airspace even if consent is not required.)
And the biggest feature of this time is that the US military is absent. The US military is currently waiting in neighboring countries, but it should not control and protect the airport like Kabul Airport in Afghanistan.
In other words, it is necessary for the Self-Defense Forces to carry out protection, guidance, containment, etc. on their own. Of course, I think the Ethiopian army is also guarding, but missions in situations where terrorists may be hiding are extremely dangerous.
And the biggest problem is when the rebels invade the capital. Perhaps the Self-Defense Forces will not be able to operate when the capital is invaded within 100 km. In other words, the activity limit of the Self-Defense Forces is probably about 100km remaining.
I would like to keep an eye on future trends.
