Ethiopia situation
Government troops and Digre minorities continue to fight in Ethiopia. The battle has been going on since last year and is now approaching the capital Addis Ababa. Ethiopia's Prime Minister Abbey announced a state of emergency on November 2, instructing residents to arm themselves, and is poised to engage in a thorough battle.
On November 16th, the United States called on its citizens, who are also in France and Germany, to evacuate on the 23rd. According to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, 210 Japanese people lived there, but many of them left the country. The rest of the residents are also strongly requested to consider leaving the country.
The origin of this abandonment of ethnic minorities is that more than 1,000 residents from Tigrinya have been detained by the government, according to a spokesman for the United Nations Human Rights Institution. The detention is said to have continued even after the invasion occurred. The war between the Ethiopian army and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) has killed thousands and evacuated more than two million in the past year.
Forecast from a military perspective in the future.
The Ethiopian army is a volunteer system, consisting of an army of 13,500 and an air force of 3,000 (there is no navy).
The current strength is unknown, but it has a certain amount of military power because it used about 1000 tanks and 1000 armored vehicles in the past wars, and because it carried out air bombing in the Ethiopian-Eritrean War. I think that the.
On the other hand, there are at most tens of thousands of people on the Tigre National Liberation Front. Until April this year, the Eritrean army has invaded the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia, and it seems that it is receiving support such as weapons, but there is no doubt that the Ethiopian army is superior in terms of the strength ratio of the two.
According to a report on November 25, the TPLF was advancing to 220 km northeast of Addis Ababa. As of November 8th, it had advanced about 400km north, so it seems that it went south 200km on the 17th. The shortest route from the Tigray region to Addis Ababa requires crossing steep mountains and limited routes. The TPLF is believed to be detouring the deployable eastern routes in a distributed manner, assuming an ambush in the bottleneck of the Ethiopian National Defense Forces. Perhaps now, we should be preparing for the invasion with the area around the figure as the front line.
The future problem with TPFL will be that the supply line extends 700-800km. It is unclear what kind of equipment it is, but basically there may be dozens of vehicles, armored vehicles, and tanks. It is very difficult to procure light oil to move food, ammunition and the army in a country like Ethiopia. Perhaps the evacuated people are running away with most of their food.
Also, from the perspective of TPFL, long-term battles are not what we want. This is because the operation becomes difficult over time with the extended supply line. Also, the more time it takes, the better the preparations of the Ethiopian army will be. If you do, come to settle as soon as possible. (If you're on the move, you may just be putting pressure on the arrested compatriots.)
On the other hand, what about the Ethiopian army? They are the army. Compared to the rebels, it has all the weapons, supplies, and ground benefits. In general, the defender has an overwhelming advantage during such offensive and defensive battles. Perhaps Ethiopian troops have fortified the area around Addis Ababa in recent months. Poorly equipped rebels with extended supply lines are not the winners.
Looking at the advance of the rebels so far, the Ethiopian army will make the best use of the standby advantage, survive the invasion by defense, and detour from the left and right and block the following. And it is a strategy to completely siege and exhaust one net.
Therefore, tactically speaking, there is little chance that the rebels will win. If so, it is the participation of the Eritrean army. Ethiopia and Eritrea have always been hostile and fighting. It's no wonder it's possible to invade by taking advantage of TPFL.
Evacuation of Japanese
This situation is somewhat similar to Afghanistan in August this year. It is said that some Japanese still remain, but it is difficult to evacuate unless it is around Addis Ababa. As you can see from the map, Ethiopia is a steep mountainous area. There are only small roads. If you don't have a car or are left behind in the north, where TPFL is based, it will be difficult to evacuate. Rather, it is much more dangerous to approach Addis Ababa Airport, where the battle is about to take place. I want you to make the best choice instead of forcing yourself to follow the government's instructions. The situation this time is similar to that of Afghanistan.
Currently, it is said that it is encouraging voluntary evacuation, but depending on the situation, evacuation by SDF aircraft is quite possible. Considering the dangerous situation that the rebels are not under the control of the state, it would be Article 84-4 "Transportation of Japanese overseas" of the Self-Defense Forces Act. And, as far as each operation is analyzed, only one or two weeks are left until the full-scale battle begins.
Personally, I think it is quite difficult for Japanese people who cannot reach Addis Ababa on their own to evacuate by the Self-Defense Forces.
