Declaration of invasion of Taiwan
On July 1, 2021, at the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping arrogantly disseminated the unification of Taiwan both inside and outside the country, saying that "unification of Taiwan is a historical mission of China."
Taiwan has never been included in the history of the People's Republic of China. Later, when I returned to my room, I noticed that I was so embarrassed that I was in agony.
At a U.S. parliamentary hearing in March 2021, Commander Davidson of the Indo-Pacific Army mentioned the possibility of "China invading Taiwan by force within six years." The United States is likely to have plenty of evidence for China to invade Taiwan.
After that, "the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait" was confirmed all over the world, starting with "2 + 2" in Japan and the United States in March this year. (What is the confirmation of important students)
→ Explanation video
Considering that Yonaguni Island is only about 100km away from Taiwan and that the Senkaku Islands continue to be threatened by China, China's invasion of Taiwan should not be personal to Japan. In addition, about 25,000 Japanese live in Taiwan, and 2 million Japanese travel every year. In other words, in the case of a surprise invasion, it is estimated that there are about 40,000 to 50,000 Japanese. (For 100 400-seater jumbo jets. Considering the other 700,000 foreigners, it is not realistic to escape abroad.)
In this paper, I would like to see how China would invade Taiwan by force.
Taiwan terrain
First, let's briefly check the geographical relationship between Taiwan and China, and the characteristics of Taiwan's land.
There is the Taiwan Strait between China and Taiwan, and the distance is 150-200km. The maximum range of the howitzer is about 30km, so it cannot be reached.
The means of attack on the main island will be missiles, bombing, and naval gunfire. This distance can be reached by transport helicopters and landing craft.
In addition to the main island of Taiwan, Taiwan has islands such as Maso, Kinmen, Penghu, and (Dongsha * not on the map). Matsu and Kinmen are 5km from mainland China, and Penghu Island is about 150km.
Matsu and Kinmen Island (islands along the coast of China) are within the range of all mortars, and it is easy to travel to the sea. However, the mountains are probably fortified, so it is not easy to secure them completely.
Penghu (an island in the southwest of Taiwan) would be a good harbor. With an airfield and multiple ports, it could also be used as a forward logistics base. The coastal area is shallow and rocky, so landing seems difficult. Looking at the overgrown trees in the central and eastern parts of the island, it is not clear, but it may have been fortified in preparation for the war.
If you invade the mainland without occupying this island (Luhu Island), you will be stabbed from the side or behind, so the Chinese army will surely destroy or occupy it.
The mainland of Taiwan is shallow as a whole, with flat land on the west side and wide cities, and mountains on the east side.
Multiple rivers will divide the land and divide the troops after landing. However, this is the same for the Taiwanese army.
Large-scale landings are limited because suitable landing sites are concentrated in the north and south of the west coast. Dotted with airfields and ports.
There is a narrow bottleneck between the flatlands, and moving large troops in the midst of enemy interference can be a daunting task.
In particular, Taipei, the capital, is surrounded by mountains and is like a fortress. In the capture of Taiwan, the fall of the capital following the ground battle after landing will be the biggest mountain.
The mountains are probably fortified, that is, like cheese full of holes, with radar, ground, anti-aircraft, anti-ship missiles and shelters scattered around.
For reference, it is the placement of the Taiwanese army. Although it is a basic layout, the air base and the port cannot be moved, so we have to fight based on this.
Mainly for foreigners, when talking about evacuation, the closest places to Taiwan are Luzon Island in the Philippines, which is 400 km away, or Okinawa, which is 500 km away. Assuming that the US military will carry out a Taiwanese defense operation, there will be no choice for Okinawa.
How will the Chinese troops invade Taiwan?
【root】
There are two routes for China to invade Taiwan.
The first is the route to occupy Matsu and board directly into the capital, Taipei.
The second is a route that occupies Kinmen Island and Penghu Island and attacks from the south.
* If you want to know which one to attack from, call the Communist Party Defense Ministry (list the phone number in the video).
[Large-scale military exercise]
First of all, large-scale integrated military exercises should be conducted in the Taiwan Strait as usual. Units and supplies from all over the country will be mobilized, mainly in the Eastern and Southern Theater Command. Hopefully, US intelligence and others may be able to get the information, but it should call for military exercises similar to practice as a super-secret matter. Soldiers only know about missiles and bombings.
Given that China needs to get Taiwan by the time the strongest U.S. arrives, it will take Taiwan within four to five days of launching an attack and getting the surrounding U.S. fleet equipped and arriving. Where you want to occupy. Therefore, it seems that the preparation for the operation, which is disguised as an exercise, is quite important.
[Cyber Attack / Disinformation / Special Forces]
In the aggression, cyber attacks will be carried out first. Cyber attacks can cause power equipment to malfunction and completely paralyze transportation and communications infrastructure. For closed systems, it is OK if a virus-containing USB is inserted by the operatives and cooperators who are preparing on a daily basis. In Taiwan, they speak the same Chinese and are of the same race, so it should be relatively easy to do.
At the same time, false information should be disseminated on the net.
(In Taiwan, whether Xi Jinping's hymns should be included in the Taiwan Oricon chart, or the bad words of the President of the Festival English should be spread on Twitter ...)
By the time the operation begins, 10,000 to 20,000 special forces have secretly invaded and destroyed critical infrastructure such as radar, communications equipment, dams and power plants. As a decapitation operation, he will attempt to kill the president, lawmakers, commanders, and so on.
[SLBM]
As for missiles, about 1000 medium- and short-range intercontinental ballistic missiles and a total of 500 cruise missiles will fall.
[Attack on Matsu / Kinmen (a coastal island in China)]
A howitzer should be fired at Matsu and Kinmon to the extent that the terrain changes. Many bombs such as US military MOAB and bunker buster will be launched into the mountains. In addition, it may make a drone carried by a ship special attack.
Landing is swift with landing craft and transport helicopters.
Anyway, put in numbers, siege the mountains, and eliminate Taiwanese troops to ensure occupation. In this case, it would be difficult for 10,000 residents of Matsu and 100,000 residents of Kinmen to evacuate.
China will attack Penghu Island (the island southwest of Taiwan) in parallel with the neutralization of Kinmen Island. The procedure is almost the same, deploying a landing craft from the north side of the island and landing.
They will relentlessly stalk air strikes and naval gunfire at the landing site. The Taiwanese police, who have only a pistol, can't do this.
On the other hand, Luhu Island is only 30-40 km away from the main island of Taiwan, so it is within the range of Taiwanese surface-to-ship intermediate-range missiles. For this reason, the Chinese army will deploy Luyan III (missile destroyer) and SAM to protect anti-aircraft and missiles.
Probably, anti-aircraft and anti-ship missiles and a large number of guns are placed and fortified on the rocky reef located in the south of Penghu Island, so it should be vacated by prior air strikes and missile attacks.
Mainland invasion
I've talked about Penghu Island so far, but my favorite is the Taipei route (I haven't confirmed it with the Communist Party Defense Ministry).
The reason is that Taipei has the main functions of Taiwan, and if you occupy it, you can reach your goal in the shortest possible time.
If you attack from the south, you will allow Taiwan's defense in depth, you will have to cross multiple bottleneck, it will take time and many damages may occur.
On the other hand, if you occupy the surrounding islands other than the main island first, there is a high possibility that you will be able to maintain Kinmen, Matsu, and Penghu even if the main island of Taiwan cannot be occupied due to an obstacle (in the United States). , Can achieve certain results. It is essential to keep a face in China.
[Air strikes and naval gunfire]
The landing will take place from Cape Baishajia to the coast of driftwood (the coast on the upper left of the map).
The overall terrain is flat, weak and relatively easy to land.
First, destroy the landing area thoroughly with air strikes and naval gunfire.
Taoyuan City will be returned to Ashes and will be returned to civilization during the Yayoi period.
(The annual manga event in April and the winter Taiwan marathon have been cancelled. Vivian Hsu has retired. S.H.E and Pop Lady have been forced to disband and will never be able to eat authentic Taiwan ramen or delicious pineapples.)
By the way, here is where the landing operation is difficult. Perhaps Taiwan will soon deploy mines along the coast. Mines are difficult to detect and dispose of, require time to dispose of, and are extremely cumbersome. If it were to be used for minesweeping in front of the enemy, it would be the target of a surface-to-ship missile.
Therefore, it should carry out agile attacks by paratroopers and heribbon units. Approximately 200 or more large and medium-sized transport helicopters fly in an ultra-low altitude of 50 m or less at sea, and fly in a distributed manner while limiting damage, fly along the mountain on the east side, and land. It will secure the main points of the command post, the destruction of field artillery units, and the ports and bridges. In addition, some will occupy the bottleneck and completely obstruct the reinforcements of the Taiwanese army.
The paratroopers will occupy the ports around Heiwajima Park, the port entrance, and Kitahama Park, Bud Station, and the Tian Sung Pi to secure the bridge and block the line of communication (see video).
At the same time, about 100 landing craft (LCM) that hardly move to radar are deployed, and they secretly travel to the sea and penetrate at night. Destroy coastal direct firearms and mountainous observation points with a force of 4000-5000 people.
[Landing]
After that, the mines were roughly processed and the landing ship was rushed. About 20,000 people will come from the landing ship. However, unlike the Japanese army, Taiwan has a large number of anti-personnel land mines, so it is necessary to treat them with explosives. On the other hand, the landing site has a wide flat land and there is no terrain that can be used by the Taiwanese army, so if you push it by number, Taoyuan City will fall.
The Taiwanese army, on the other hand, is expected to draw a three-line defense line to defend after breaking through the coast (see video).
① Utilize mountain legs and rivers at Zhuwei Fish Harbor-Along the River-Hoshigetsu Bridge-Dai Ji Driving School
② Defend on the Mizuo-New Taipei City-Datong Mountain line
③ Defense in the Tamsui River
is. I don't know what the Taiwanese army thinks.
Combat in the first line position
First of all, regarding line (1), the front is about 20 km, and Taiwanese troops are immediately divided and isolated. In addition, although it is a river in front of the base, if you look closely, there is no revetment work and if the river width is narrow, it is only 20 m. If the tank is about 5m long, you can dive with a snorkel, so even if you destroy all the bridges, the effect of stalling is insignificant. There are three major routes on the first line, but the terrain is strong and the Chinese army will be stalled. In addition to the natural terrain, the route is almost urban, and if Taiwanese guerrilla units are lurking, they will have to move slowly under the leadership of infantry. In addition, if anti-personnel land mines and gimmick traps are set up in both the mountains and urban areas, it will be difficult for infantry to penetrate. Therefore, relentless missile attacks, bombardments, and artillery attacks on the bottleneck should be carried out, and the city area should be returned to ashes. Ribbon attack on the second lap ・ A paratrooper is thrown in here and attacks the position from behind.
Battle on the line of the second line position
(2) In the second line, a battle occurs in parallel with the attack on the first line. Here you will have time to fight on the third line.
Perhaps the first and second lines will be broken through in a day, as they are almost unprepared if China's surprise attack is successful on the 2nd.
Battle of the third line position
The third line will be a siege battle in the city. The key is to fortify the city and utilize the river.
The final line is a castle-like terrain with a river line that has been revetmented to surround the capital.
China wants to kill key figures in the Taiwanese government and resign from the cabinet before US military vessels come to support. Therefore, ground forces, including special forces, will be infiltrated or infiltrated from the beginning and will occupy parliament and government agencies.
Taiwanese troops and volunteers will engage in guerrilla warfare in the occupied urban areas and eastern mountains to interfere with Chinese troops.
At this point, the rest is hunting for remnants. In China, the second Carrie Lam (Carry Lam * Mayor of Hong Kong) will create a Taiwan ward and a Taiwanese qualification match will be held. After that, it is visible to follow Tibet and Uighurs.
Evacuation
So what should foreigners who unfortunately happen to travel to Taiwan or live in Taiwan do?
In the first place, those who were present when China attacked can only escape. Personally, I don't recommend staying at Kinmen or Matsu. The area southeast of the mainland is the safest, so let's escape in that direction. When fleeing the country, the plane has a high magnification and can be ruthlessly shot down. If China does not blockade at sea, asylum on a ship is certain.
The video file at the beginning explains it with an image, so if you are not sure, please refer to that.
