According to satellite images from October to November in Russia, several elite regiments normally deployed around Moscow have joined, and currently 100,000 people and 100 tactical battalions are deployed.
Half of the deployed units are already ready to launch operations, and the invasion can begin within the next few weeks, according to US officials.参考
Russia has so far argued that "Ukraine is unacceptable to join NATO." NATO countries, on the other hand, have strengthened their relations with Ukraine and are conducting a joint exercise at NATO-Ukraine in September of this year.
Russia deployed a large force around April this year, but unlike the last time it was aimed at showing off its power, this time it warns that "it is likely that it is actually preparing to invade Kiev or Donbas in the east."
Quote: Public Domain Ukrainian Ground Force
Among the Russian troops deployed near the border is the 1st Guards Tank Division of elite troops, and NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also described the Russian troops deployed along the Ukrainian border as "large and extraordinary forces. "Concentration" is increasing the sense of caution.
The United States was reported to NATO member countries as "sharing information on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including the deployment status of Russian troops and invasion scenarios," but U.S. government officials said, "Depending on the weather, Western countries. Without this intervention, Russia's invasion of Ukraine could begin within a few weeks. " The information shared by the United States also included the US's assessment that Putin may decide to invade Ukraine early next year.
The scenario included a deployment unit advancing to Ukraine through Russia, Crimean and Belarus. These units operate in complex terrain and cold climate conditions, seizing a wide range of territories (eastern half of Ukraine) and acting for long periods of time.
By the way, the number of staff at the US Embassy in Moscow is currently 1200 as of 2017.
According to the instructions of the Russian government, the number has decreased to 120.参照
Furthermore, in October of this year, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said, "NATO is fair," while NATO took steps to effectively expel eight diplomats from the Russian Permanent Mission to NATO as "informers." He said he was not interested in dialogue and collaborative work. There was no suitable environment for diplomatic activities. " And said.参考
It's unclear if it was done intentionally, but it can be said that it is prepared to some extent for diplomatic invasion.
I don't know if Russia will invade in the future, but it needs to be watched.
