Russia's invasion of Ukraine expected

Progress

[Deployment of troops]

According to satellite images from October to November 2021, there are currently about 100,000 people and 100 tactical battalions deployed.

● According to US government officials, half of the deployed units are already ready to start operations and can start invading within the next few weeks.参考 U.S. officials warn of possible Russian military incursion into Ukraine

[Russian claim]

● Russia has so far insisted that "Ukraine is unacceptable to join NATO." (In the past, Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union and President Putin still recognizes it as within Russia.) NATO countries, on the other hand, strengthened relations with Ukraine and held a joint exercise at NATO-Ukraine in September of this year. It is being carried out.

【scenario】

● The United States was reported to NATO member countries as "sharing information on Russia's invasion of Ukraine, including the deployment status of Russian troops and the invasion scenario." The information shared by the United States also included the US's assessment that Putin may decide to invade Ukraine early next year.

● The scenario included a deployment unit advancing into Ukraine through Russia, Crimean, and Belarus. These units operate in complex terrain and cold climate conditions, seizing a large territory (eastern half of Ukraine) and acting for long periods of time.

[Diplomatic situation]

● The number of staff at the US Embassy in Moscow has decreased from 1,200 as of 2017 to 120 according to the instructions of the Russian government. reference

● In October of this year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov accused NATO of not being interested in fair dialogue and collaborative work. There was no suitable environment for diplomatic activities, and it was a countermeasure against NATO. After that, he said that he would suspend the activities of the Russian Embassy in NATO after November 1. reference

● On November 26, the President of Ukraine announced that intelligence agencies had received voices indicating that Russian and Ukrainian millionaires were planning a coup on December 1. (Russian government and named millionaire denied)

● On December 2, the Russian government issued an order to leave the country by January 31 for US embassy staff who have stayed in Moscow for more than three years. (Retaliation for the U.S.'s decision not to extend visas for more than 50 Russian diplomats who must leave by June 30th next year)

current situation

On December 1, Russian troops began an exercise on the scale of 10,000 people near the Ukrainian border. According to the Russian government, the Ukrainian army is also gathering about half of the total army of 125,000 people at the border.

ロシア軍 ウクライナ国境近くで軍事演習 (2021年12月2日) - エキサイトニュース (excite.co.jp)

"Russia is planning a military attack on Ukraine in early 2022 at the earliest," the Washington Post reported.

"The plan includes wide-area action by a battalion of 100 soldiers with an estimated 175,000 soldiers," he predicted.

ロシアがウクライナ侵攻計画＝来年早々にも１７万人規模―米報道 (2021年12月4日) - エキサイトニュース (excite.co.jp)

Future forecast

Russian troops invaded Ukraine's Crimea in 2014 as well. It is said that 6,000 to 30,000 Russian troops participated in this invasion. This killed about 14,000 people. By the way, in cities such as Moscow and St. Berg, demonstrations are being held in support of the invasion of Crimea on a scale of tens of thousands. Perhaps not a few Russians support this invasion of Ukraine.

Ability, environment, and will are required to reach a military invasion.

It was

From the viewpoint of ability, of the total 270,000 Army troops, about 100,000 have already been deployed at the border. If you look at the fact that you have already been preparing for more than half a year, you will be in good shape. It is said that more than 100,000 Ukrainian troops have already been deployed, but unlike Russia, preparations here are insufficient. Perhaps defense preparations are not very advanced.

Ukraine is generally flat and has no terrain to approach. Russia's heavy force, bombing ability, and electronic warfare ability can be fully demonstrated. The front is about 600km. According to the US intelligence agency, it will invade from some side, but with a force of about 100,000 in this terrain, a gap will occur and it will be struck immediately. As far as the statements of the Secretary-General of NATO and senior US officials are concerned, although the support for weapons is supported, there is no sign of military intervention.

Regarding the environment, the dissemination of the cause of Ukraine's intervention in NATO is progressing, and the understanding of Russian citizens is progressing. There is also a successful invasion of Crimea once in 2014. The West has threatened Russia over and over, but honestly Russia would be ignoring it. The exposure of coup plans and operational plans to the world seems to be a deterrent.

It is the "concept of deterrence" that has a great influence on the will. Deterrence is the sum of disciplinary deterrence and refusal deterrence.

Punishment deterrence is to discourage the mainland from thinking that if it invades, it will receive retaliation such as missile attacks. Rejective deterrence is to make people think that invasion will cause great damage and also to discourage them. Simply expressed, the recognition of the leader,

Profit obtained by invasion <Damage due to invasion + Damage due to retaliation

It is said that the invasion will be given up in the case of. Speaking of Ukraine, it is recalled that Hitler conducted a large-scale invasion operation in search of its fertile land during World War II. Russia will be more about expanding its sphere of influence than its economy. There may be a will to expand the territory in this country. In this respect, it looks just like China. Given the fact that the West has not mentioned military intervention, it should be considered that the benefits are overwhelmingly greater than the damage.

It may have already been decided to invade. The rest is up to Putin.