URL：台湾有事！中国の台湾侵攻作戦とは？：台湾軍、米軍、自衛隊はどう動くか | nippon.comについて考えてみる。
By the way, I haven't read any articles at this point.
I'm looking forward to reading the articles of those who have titles that represent Japan's national defense.
Let's go.
After that, I will summarize the article part by part and give my own analysis.
China's invasion of Taiwan begins with a cyber attack
The PLA's invasion of the main island of Taiwan (hereinafter referred to as the PLA) will be a short-term decisive battle through joint operations. The battle begins with a cyberattack that the Taiwanese side cannot detect in advance. Attack targets include Taiwan's power transmission systems, airports, ports, railroads, highway control systems, securities trading systems, banking systems, and government agency servers. At the same time as the turmoil begins in various parts of Taiwan, missile attacks are carried out in waves. Highly destructive ballistic missiles are used for runways at airports and air force bases, and highly accurate cruise missiles are used for radar sites and missile interception systems. Information control by cutting the submarine cable will also be aimed at.
Missile attacks are also being carried out against US military bases in Japan, and cyber attacks are not limited to that, and may also target Tokyo, Washington DC, Hawaii, Guam, and so on.
It is believed that the next stage will be a landing operation using transport aircraft, amphibious assault ships, and private ships while ensuring air superiority and maritime superiority. At present, the PLA's transport capacity cannot send enough troops to control all of Taiwan at once. Therefore, it is thought that a small number of elite troops that can move at high speed will be sent to Taipei and Kaohsiung.
In addition to running up the Tamsui River, which is directly connected to Taipei City, with a large hovercraft, there is a possibility of attempting to land a unit from Keelung Port near Taipei using a private car ferry as well as an amphibious assault on the coast. Has also been pointed out. The landing party will try to control the Presidential Office Building, the Ministry of Defense, and Taipei Songshan Airport. If Matsuyama Airport can be seized, troops can be sent there. At the same time, a decapitation operation of the Liberation Army Special Forces will be carried out to abduct and assassinate Taiwanese VIPs. It is undeniable that special forces, which are said to be already hiding in Taiwan, may respond and disturb Taiwan from the inside.
Everything is consistent with what I have analyzed so far. In particular, it is excellent that the US mainland (Washington) is included in the scope of cyber attacks. I think the tactical flow of the "mainland" invasion is as above.
To organize,
(1) Cyber attack, (2) Missile attack, (3) Deployment of small vessels such as LCU, (4) Attack by special forces, (5) Air attack + naval gunfire, (6) Landing + air assault attack
However, the concept of terrain is a little lacking. China needs to seize Mazu, Kinmen, and Penghu islands before invading mainland Taiwan. Of course, I think it is possible to attack and invade in parallel. However, it will not invade only the mainland.
After that, there is no element of naval gunfire or the concept of land combat, so I wonder if that should be deepened.
The video on the right explains the specific invasion procedure in the event of a Taiwan emergency that I analyzed, so if you feel like it, please watch it (If you like it, follow the channel ...)
The video below was created by my analysis of China's invasion of Taiwan. Please take a look
Taiwanese army waiting for U.S. military support to withstand the onslaught of the PLA
The Taiwanese army is also considering interception through joint operations. ~
In order to survive the PLA's first strike, the Taiwanese army evacuates a certain number of fighters to the hollowed-out mountain base hangar in eastern Taiwan. Destroyer and frigate moored at the military port will also depart all at once, avoiding shooting. In response to PLA missile attacks, the Taiwanese army intercepts with the PAC-3 and the domestic air defense system "Tianyu Type 3", and electronic warfare units that mislead the PLA missiles and interfere with communications also move. .. However, I'm not sure how effective it will be against the PLA's first saturation attack.
Fighters equipped with air-to-ground missiles will take off from air force bases in Taichung, Taichung, and Luhu Island, attacking the Liberation Army's radar sites, ballistic missile launchers, and air defense missile systems. Cruise missiles are being deployed and their range is being extended with the PLA's front-line attack bases and rear-base attacks to support soldiers in mind. If Taiwan succeeds in developing a ballistic missile with a range of 2000 kilometers, it will be possible to bring Beijing into range. The decapitation operation will be handled by the Führer Escort Unit, the Special Forces Command Center, the Military Police Unit, and the Coast Guard Administration Special Forces.
The Taiwanese army attempts to intercept the Liberation Army coming to the sea from the air, sea, and land, but the stage where the Liberation Army carries out the sea voyage operation should be the stage where the air superiority and the maritime superiority are almost seized. The counterattack is not enough. The salvation for the Taiwanese army is that the PLA's ability to travel to the sea is not sufficient. ~
U.S. military counterattacks destroy links with satellites and cruise missiles
When the US military intervenes in a Taiwan emergency, "minimizing the sacrifice of its own soldiers" is a top priority. The U.S. military, which does not want to keep its carrier task force within range while the Liberation Army's anti-ship ballistic missiles DF-21D and DF-26 are functioning effectively, will consider destroying the capabilities of China's reconnaissance satellites. .. ~
In addition, a cruise missile attack from the Ohio-class cruise missile nuclear submarine (SSGN) should be considered to physically destroy radar sites and communication facilities with satellites in mainland China. ~
After advancing to the waters near the first island chain, SSGN will launch a total of over 600 Tomahawks all at once and will soon leave the sea area. The precision impact of the Tomahawk will significantly reduce China's satellite-based detection and attack capabilities. ~
Without letting go of this aircraft, the US aircraft carrier task force can rapidly approach mainland China and cut off subsequent troops and supplies from the invasion of Taiwan.
So far, I haven't analyzed much about Taiwan's response, so it's very helpful. Evacuation of fighters to the fortified eastern mountains, departure of ships from the airport, electronic warfare, air defense.
Even more surprising is the mention of Taiwan's developing "Yoon Feng". So far, it should have been developed with a range of 1,500 km, so it will not reach Beijing at the last minute, but it will be possible to cover the city in the south (on the other hand, even if several long-range missiles are launched, it will be nuclear. Unless it is a missile, it has almost no strategic effect.)The response of the US military is also sharp. First, the authority to intervene in Taiwan is centralized in Article 2 of the US Constitution, "The President is the Commander-in-Chief of the Army." In other words, it depends on the president at that time whether or not to intervene. Given the current rise in the US threat theory of China, public opinion suggests that there is no option not to intervene in the Taiwan emergency. "Minimize the sacrifice of soldiers," he said, is also correct. I feel that the United States today is transforming into a character that does not tolerate many sacrifices for other countries. From that point of view, as the theory suggests, we will actively use unmanned aerial vehicles and missiles, and refrain from deploying ships and aircraft as much as possible within the A2 / AD range. In other words, it is highly probable that a stand-off attack by strategic bombers such as B1, B2, and B52, and the destruction of the base by a tomahawk from a long distance will be carried out.
Personally, I'm skeptical about bringing the aircraft carrier closer. Invading an aircraft carrier within the range of modern long-range, high-precision, hypersonic missiles is too risky. The aircraft carrier also has a symbolic side, and if it is sunk by a missile or torpedo, it will take more damage than physical loss.
Although there was no mention of ground troops, in the operations of the US Marine Corps (US Army) (EABO, MDO), troops were deployed in the islands to target by ISR activities, and enemy ships were attacked by long-range missiles. It is like destroying and supporting the joint forces. It is presumed that the operation will be carried out by landing on Luzon Island in the Philippines, the islands in the southwestern part of Japan, and, if necessary, the main island of Taiwan, and distributing small units.
"Taiwan emergency" is nothing but "Japan emergency"
If China plans to invade Taiwan, it will first urge Japan and the United States not to support Taiwan through diplomatic channels. It is quite conceivable to separate Japan and the United States by saying, "Only US military bases will attack Japan, and if Japan does not support the US and Taiwan, it will not attack Japan." Japan should assume that the Liberation Army will make a preemptive attack on US military bases in Kadena, Sasebo, Iwakuni, and Yokosuka with cyber attacks and missiles. ~ A missile attack on a US military base in Japan seems to be synonymous with an armed attack on Japan. If the Japanese government recognizes the armed attack situation, the prime minister will order the Self-Defense Forces to dispatch defense and fight back against China. The Self-Defense Forces will fight to protect Japan, which is the original mission.
The Self-Defense Forces dealt with the incoming ballistic missiles, etc. with the SM-3 Block 2A launched from the modernized and refurbished "Atago" type and "Maya" type Aegis ships, and then with the land-launched PAC-3. However, as a preliminary step, it is important to have a function to detect ballistic missile launches, capture ballistic missiles, and immediately transmit and share information. For that purpose, it is desirable to increase the number of early warning satellites and communication satellites. In order to detect supersonic missiles, it is possible to deploy an unmanned reconnaissance aircraft forward.If the US military intervenes in a Taiwan emergency, the Self-Defense Forces will provide logistical support to the US military while protecting Japan. In addition, the Self-Defense Forces are likely to be tasked with rescue missions for Japanese residents in Taiwan.
Analysis of whether a Taiwan emergency will become a southwest emergency.
I did not expect China to diplomatically encourage Japan and the United States not to intervene. If this were done, the time of the invasion would be exposed and it would be disadvantageous for China.
I agree that the first strike on Japan (US military base) is a cyber attack or a missile attack. It will also have to protect Taiwanese Japanese (about 20,000?).
The missing elements are sabotage by the National Defense Mobilization Law of Chinese residents in Japan. If you include the special forces and operatives who are hiding with about 800,000 Chinese, it will be a considerable scale. This cannot be dealt with by 240,000 police.
In addition, the elements of fishing boats (militia) and special forces landing on the southwestern base are missing. The Self-Defense Forces will be forced to respond to ground forces in addition to missiles. Perhaps because of this, the perspective of protecting the people living in the southwest is also missing, so it is difficult to promote these in parallel.
summary
Looking back on history, war is complicated and its triggers cannot be predicted. Furthermore, in the event of a Taiwan emergency, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, the Philippines, India, Australia, etc. will be involved in addition to Taiwan, Japan, the United States, and China. Furthermore, modern warfare is not limited to land, sea and air, but in addition to the areas of cyber, space, and cognition, hybrid warfare that obscures peacetime and emergencies will be held. To be clear, I think it is really difficult to anticipate and respond to an operation in which these factors are intricately intertwined.
Consideration is important, but it is even more important to prepare for it. From that perspective, equipment, ammunition, law, training, and preparedness would not be enough. I don't know when and what will happen. And if it happens and you can't deal with it, it will be irreversible, so it is important to prepare well.
