Occasionally, there are people who have the opinion that "it is a deception that military power can deter."
"There was a war in Iraq, which had military power, and in Afghanistan, so military power cannot prevent the invasion. Diplomatic power is important."
There are many things to do, but first of all, what is deterrence? Let's take it easy from that point.
Deterrence (in military terms) is to discourage an opponent's invasion. The fact that the other party invades is that there is a national interest. The benefits of invading are the acquisition of resources and free transportation routes in and around the territory.
In order for deterrence to be established, it is necessary to impose a disadvantage (risk) beyond this benefit. The easiest to understand is "rejective deterrence." Rejective deterrence is to discourage the other party from thinking that the cost of being counterattacked is greater than the benefit of the invasion. From a military perspective, it means sinking invading ships with torpedoes and returning the landing soldiers.
Furthermore, there is "punishing deterrence" in deterrence. Disciplinary deterrence is the deterrence of an invasion by making it appear to be an unbearable blow beyond the benefits of the invasion. From a military perspective, it is conceivable that a missile will hit the other country, or that an aircraft will bomb the country.
Generally, it is said that deterrence is established by combining this "rejective deterrence" and "punitive deterrence".
in short,
Profit <(damage caused by counterattack + damage caused by hitting your own country)
If the formula of is established, the invasion can be deterred.
Of course, in the physical world, there are emotional frictions such as miscalculations, misunderstandings, anger and pride, as long as people judge. Not all will fit this formula.
Of course, diplomatic power and soft power are also important. Cooperate and cooperate with various countries and gain international support. Form an alliance to ensure collective security. This is also a deterrent.
However, it does not have the ability to deal with diplomatic power and the soft power of culture and economy. Once the deterrence collapses, it is invaded without any help and there is no choice but to overrun. It is impossible to prevent missiles and machine guns in words. Even a military layman should know that words are completely meaningless when it comes to combat.
Those who advocate the need for military power forget that there is a response after deterrence. If complete deterrence is possible, please tell us which world line you came from. I'm sure they have carved a peaceful history in the conflict.
Deterrence collapses in the wake of something.
It's a little off topic, but there are people in Okinawa who oppose the Self-Defense Forces, shouting that "there is a base for the Self-Defense Forces, so a war will occur" and "the base of the Self-Defense Forces will be the target."
They have one big misunderstanding. War does not occur because there is a base for the Self-Defense Forces. Some country attacks the Self-Defense Forces in order to invade. On the contrary, if there is no SDF base, it is a military no-risk high return. If you feel like it, you can occupy it in a day and slaughter or enslave the inhabitants.
"The target is the base of the Self-Defense Forces." This is correct. For the invading enemy, it is natural to eliminate the risk of being counterattacked first. The SDF base will be the first target, and if it is destroyed, it will occupy the island. In other words, without the Self-Defense Forces, it would be easily overrun and the end.
In other words, there is only merit in having the Self-Defense Forces on the southwestern island. If the enemy intends to invade, it will be a battlefield with or without the Self-Defense Forces (if they do not intend to invade, missiles will not fly and the Self-Defense Forces base will not be a target). If you want to complain, just leave the island. It's a nuisance to residents who don't want to be slaves. It only interferes with the defense of the Self-Defense Forces.
And there is one thing that many Japanese, including the government, have misunderstood.
That is, "No one knows if the current order will last for the next 50 years." Looking back on history, when World War I was over and the Treaty of Versailles was signed, every country was convinced that "World War would not happen anymore." However, in reality, less than 30 years later, the second world war has occurred.
The current situation is also the same. The nations of the world, including the United States, Russia, and China, have the power to fight wars all over the globe. I don't know when and what will trigger the current order to break. In particular, if it is a semi-dictatorship of China or North Korea, it is possible to ignore existing international rules altogether and start a war for territorial expansion from tomorrow due to misunderstandings, misunderstandings, and pride.
Of course, the chances are extremely low. However, it is not always unlikely after 50 years.
Right now, we may only have to discuss defenses about the Senkaku Islands, Taiwan, and Okinawa. However, if the order of the world changes drastically and the invasion is a matter of course, the whole of Japan including Tokyo will be the target. No matter how much the military power is invested, it will take 10 to 20 years to build it. It's too late after it's too late.
That is why it is necessary to deter the invasion, and if the deterrence breaks down, possess the corresponding military power and strengthen it according to the surrounding military power. Without military power, the country cannot maintain its independence in the future.
