In this paper, we will consider whether the Taiwan contingency is directly linked to the southwest contingency from a military perspective.
Left-wing thinking
What are the thoughts of those who oppose the war about this theory? According to Kyodo News Takashi Okada, who has published many articles from China and Korea.
〇 In June 2021, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Millie, the head of the U.S. military uniform group, testified in Congress that "(Taiwan contingency) is unlikely to occur in the near future."
〇 The foreign affairs magazine "Foreign Affairs" (September / October 2021) published an article entitled "Is the Strait an Emergency? Discussing China's Threat to Taiwan?" It has neither the ability to invade the sea, nor the ability to block sea and airspace or attack remote islands. "
Based on the two
In Japan, many large letters and intellectuals still draw scenarios based on the Taiwan contingency theory. The author (Mr. Okada) thinks that the following "three political intentions" by both Japanese and US officials lie behind it.
1 Build a framework in which Japan plays a proactive role in the Taiwan issue
2 Accelerate the southwestern shift of the Self-Defense Forces and advance the ground leveling for future deployment of U.S. military intermediate-range missiles
3 Provoke Beijing and search for the "red line (of the use of force)""The Japanese government is provoking China and creating a fake threat," he concluded.
I haven't read much of the article from the left, but it probably settles on this kind of thinking as a whole. Even so, it is a pity that the purpose is to criticize the government as much as I wonder if I have really seen China's actions so far.
Realist thinking
On the contrary, what are the thoughts of those who have been at the forefront of security so far?
Yoshikazu Watanabe, former GSDF eastern general manager, responded to an interview in September 2021.
"Taiwan emergency is Japan emergency". If China attempts to unify Taiwan's armed forces, the Nansei Islands will enter the theater. Japan must endeavor to prevent such a situation from happening. One of the measures is the "ocean pressure strategy" that enhances deterrence. If you compare it to American football, she will lay her defense line consisting of anti-ship and anti-aircraft missiles on the first island chain that runs from the Japanese archipelago to Taiwan. Bombers and ships located behind will be linebacks and support the defense line with long-range missiles.
Is answered.In addition, Kiyofumi Iwata, the former Chief of Staff, Ground Self-Defense Force,
China strengthens external expansionism. Xi Jinping's attendance declares Taiwan's unification as a "historical mission," and the United States warns that the PLA will have that capability six years from now. In the event of a Taiwan emergency, the infrastructure of the Nansei Islands and the US military and SDF bases will also be targeted by China. What will happen then? We simulated the situation assumed to be the top of the former Ground Self-Defense Force, including "hybrid warfare" that combines cyber attacks and economic blockade. (Former Chief of Staff, Ground Self-Defense Force Kiyofumi Iwata)He has stated that he will carry out operations including an attack on the Self-Defense Forces base regarding the invasion of Taiwan.
Why Japan is provoking China and not creating a threat of imagination
To conclude, my idea is close to the above two. The reason will be described below.
First of all, the statement by Chief of the Defense Staff Milly, which is the basis of Mr. Okada's argument at the beginning, that "the possibility of invasion by China is low" and the report of "insufficient invasion ability" are based on Mr. Okada's enumerated government speculation and Japan. It does not provoke China and create a threat of invasion.
The basis of security is "preparing for what if", and just because it is unlikely does not mean that you do not have to respond to the invasion. If there is a few percent chance that the Japanese will be slaughtered and occupy the territory inherited from their ancestors, it is natural to promote the strengthening of the self-defense force by deploying the Self-Defense Forces and the strengthening of self-defense by increasing defense costs. It is the responsibility of the country. There is no political speculation or shit.
Also, just because the invasion ability is currently lacking does not mean that it will continue to be lacking. Observing the rapid increase in China's military power should not mean looking at the current military power alone. In addition, it will take several years for the Self-Defense Forces to strengthen their defense capabilities and establish their posture. It's too late for China to invade.
It is also a big mistake that the Japanese Self-Defense Forces are creating a threat of imagination. China continues to take actions in the Nansei Islands, including the Senkaku Islands, the South China Sea, and the Indian border, completely ignoring existing international law. At a ceremony celebrating the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party on July 1, this year, it declared that "unification of Taiwan is a historical mission of China" and that it will invade Taiwan by force. What is the threat, not this?
Taiwan contingency and southwest contingency from a military perspective
Next, from a military perspective, I will briefly explain why a Taiwanese emergency leads to a southwestern emergency.
From the left, the figure above shows mainland China, Taiwan, and the Nansei Islands (Yonaguni Island (the Senkaku Islands about 100 km north of it), Ishigaki Island, Miyako Island, and the main island of Okinawa).
Although the scale is not stated, Yonaguni Island is about 110km from Taiwan, and the Taiwan Strait is about 150-200km.
As you can see, there are already land-to-ship missile units and surface-to-air missile units deployed in the Nansei Islands, including Okinawa. In addition, many units are deployed in Okinawa, including the IIIMEF (Marine Corps) of the Indo-Pacific Army.
In the event of a Taiwan emergency, the US military is likely to join the Taiwanese army.
In other words, based on the base in Okinawa, the Marine Corps will be deployed, the 7th Fleet (Yokosuka) will be deployed, and strategic bombing by B1, B2, B52, etc. from Andersen Airfield in Guam will be carried out.
At this time, the US Marine Corps should deploy surface-to-ship missiles and ISR assets on the southwestern islands.
Currently, the Marine Corps NMESIS and PrSM are being refurbished with a range of 500km to 1000km (scheduled to be deployed in 2023).
In other words, by deploying to the southwest, it can directly threaten Chinese ships invading Taiwan. Marine troops deploy quickly with amphibious assault ships and transport aircraft such as C130s. In addition, the 7th Fleet will deploy Yokosuka as its home port, but the necessary supply should be received in Okinawa and, depending on the situation, the islands in the southwest.
In order to eliminate the US military's involvement in Taiwan (from China's point of view), it is necessary to destroy airports and ports in the Nansei Islands, including Okinawa. Therefore, it is assumed that first of all, a missile attack will be carried out, and depending on the situation, the Senkaku Islands or Yonaguni Island will be directly seized, or special forces will be sent to destroy the facilities. Moreover, these will be done in the early stages to limit the impact on the operation.
Furthermore, will China recapture Okinawa, including the Senkaku Islands? There is not a little ambition to do it. Therefore, it would be natural to take advantage of this turmoil and consider repelling the United States and then occupying the southwestern islands.
Also, if Taiwan is overlooked as China, it is not difficult to imagine that the entire Taiwan area will become a military base and surface-to-air missiles, surface-to-ship missiles, aircraft carriers and submarine bases will be built. If this happens, the Nansei Islands and the waters around Okinawa will always be within the range of all firearms.
Military operations in such situations carry great risks. The US military will be forced to withdraw its many troops, the Japan-US alliance will collapse, and the defense of the southwest will be impossible.
That is, if the U.S. military joins Taiwan in an emergency, the southwest will become a battlefield, and if Taiwan becomes China's without the U.S. military involved, the Japan-US alliance will be lost in the future and the defense of the southwest will be impossible. is.
