China's diplomatic leader Yang Jiechi, a political bureau member of the Communist Party, expressed his intention to support the declaration of the end of the war in a meeting with the head of the National Security Office, Suh Hoon, the South Korean presidential office. The Korean Embassy in China revealed on the 3rd.
According to my memory, during the Trump administration, there was a time when the US-Korea summit was realized and a performance for denuclearization was held, and (from the side) it was surrounded by the Korean reunification mood.
Is it possible that a nation that has been divided for more than 70 years will be unified? In the first place, the other party is that North Korea. Below, we will analyze the unification of Korea from various angles.
Historical history
On June 25, 1950, the Korean War broke out as North Korea crossed the border. It invaded Seoul on the 28th. The angry southward movement continued until around September, and the Korean-American Allied Forces were cornered to Busan, but due to the full-scale participation of the United States, the front line exceeded the 38th parallel and further north. This time, the Chinese Communist Party forces intervened in earnest and eventually settled on the current border. On March 5, 1953, Stalin of the Soviet Union, who was supporting the war, died, and the war was suspended on July 27, 1953.
After that, when it comes to North Korea,
1958 Korean National Airlines hijacking
1968 Attempted attack on the Blue House (Korea launches Sylmid in retaliation, planning to kill Kim Il Sung)
1969 Korean Air Hijacking Incident
1974 Mun Se-gwang Incident
1976 Poplar Tree Incident
1983 Rangoon incident
1983 Korean Aircraft Bombing Incident
1986 Gimpo International Airport bomb terrorist attack
1993-North Korean missiles
1996 Gangneung Penetration Case
2006-Nuclear test
2010 Cheonan sinking incident
2010 Yeonpyeong Island bombardment incident
2015 DMZ anti-personnel land mine mine incident
2017 Kim Jong Nam murder case
2020 Panmunjom North-South Liaison Office Bombing Incident
Such acts of terrorism are repeated. In particular, the poplar tree incident in 1976 killed US military personnel and the situation worsened until just before the resumption of the Korean War. In addition, missile development and nuclear tests continue despite severe sanctions from the United Nations. It is a rogue state of the world.
On the other hand, the military situation and the bad deeds so far do not have a great influence on the unification of the north and south. After all, it's a political story of whether the leaders and people of the time will accept unity.
Political speculation
First, it seems that both South Korea and North Korea want to unify the Korean Peninsula. North Korea has argued that the Korean Peninsula should be ruled by the Kim administration from before the start of the Korean War to the present. In other words, the driving force is nationalism. From the perspective of Koreans, Koreans and North Koreans have the same language. In other words, ethnic identity is the reason for unity.
Since the invasion of North Korea in the Korean War, North Korea has hoped for unification in the form of occupying and dismantling South Korea by means of armed forces and propagation of ideas. Actually, it wasn't the case due to the deterioration of the economic situation, the presence of the US military, the prosperity of South Korea and the strengthening of military power. Rather, it is afraid that the Allied Forces will attack from the south, and since it is hard to beat with normal forces, it is strengthening nuclear weapons, missiles, biological and chemical weapons, and special forces that are said to have more than 100,000 people.
From the North Korean national point of view, many would want to merge with the overwhelmingly affluent South Korea and gain a free life. However, the leader is the Kim family. He is a real dictator who sings communism. Most of North Korea's wealth is at their disposal, but if it is unified with South Korea, its power and livelihood will not be guaranteed. There is a good chance of revenge on the people and subordinates. Therefore, unless the favorable treatment is guaranteed, it is unlikely that they will show a positive attitude toward unification.
It seems that most Koreans want unification in terms of tatemae. In particular, left-handed people like President Moon think that Koreans and Koreans are compatriots. In addition, as a leader at that time, if the unification of North and South is realized, even if the result is disastrous, it will make a name for itself in the history of the world, including receiving the Nobel Peace Prize as an individual.
How about citizenship? According to what I hear, discrimination against North Korean defectors can be seen when looking at the situation of North Korean defectors and Koreans. In addition, there is an opinion that "more than 70 years have passed since the division of the north and south, and each of the north and south has begun to have its own culture, and it is no longer a compatriot."
According to a survey of Koreans in 2019,
28% said that "North and South should be unified"
"Peaceful coexistence" was 49.5%
Also, in the questionnaire on whether you want "unification" or "economy"
"Unification" 8.3%,
"Economy" 70.5%
To put it plainly, many of the people do not want to unify the North and South even painfully. It can be said that the "desire for North-South unification" that is often seen in the news is only a kind of performance and the desire of some politicians.
Military speculation
South Korea's military spending is about 5 trillion yen / year, which is 2.6% of GDP.
Army 460,000, Air Force 65,000, Navy 68,000,
It has 170 ships and about 600 fighters (including bombers).
In addition to this, 26,000 U.S. Forces Japan are stationed.
Recently, the development of light aircraft carriers, submarines, SLBMs, hypersonic missiles, etc. has been promoted, and defense spending is on the rise.
The regular army of North Korea is said to be about 1 million, and although there are many, the equipment is only that of the old generation. Unless you use asymmetrical forces such as weapons of mass destruction and special forces, you are not the opponent of the current Korean army.
It is irrational for South Korea to significantly increase its military power unless it considers an invasion of the outside world. So why is South Korea increasing its military power?
Since the Korean War, the US military has the right to control operations in an emergency. If a war occurs on the Korean Peninsula, the South Korean army will enter and operate under the command of the US military. As an independent nation, it is nothing but humiliation.
There are two possible reasons why the US military remains in control of operations. One is that they do not trust the Korean government or the military at all. During the Korean War, some South Korean troops retreated without fighting almost properly, and the US military has a history of fighting instead. Also, the essence of the Korean people is not known when they will be betrayed by sadaejuui (the idea of being strong in the weathercock). In some cases, North Korean agents have penetrated the center. Therefore, I really want to hold the reins.
The second is the participation of China. China has supported North Korea in the past Korean War. North Korea is a security buffer zone for China, and it cannot be overlooked that it has become completely Westernized and borders on its own country. The United States believes that if the Korean War reoccurs, it cannot be countered by the current South Korean forces.
In order for the Korean government to regain wartime control, it is necessary to clear these conditions. To that end, the shortcut is to strengthen the military power sufficiently and establish a system that can withstand the invasion by a part of China. In addition to this, if the unification of North and South is realized, the state of war itself will be resolved in the first place, and the cause of the US military station will disappear.
Furthermore, North Korea possesses nuclear weapons and ICBMs. North Korea has been developing while being cursed by the world while being sanctioned for many years, but there is also a calculation that these can be obtained by unifying. This is because becoming a nuclear power will be another dimension in a sense that it has a global status.
In any case, it must be drawing a blueprint for the regaining of wartime control and the withdrawal of the US military by unifying the North and South.
South Korea's military spending to GDP ratio (transition and comparison graph) | GraphToChart
Unification cost
Finally, the cost of unification. The World Bank estimates that the cost of unification will be 200 to 300 trillion yen.
East and West Germany, unified in 1990, resembles this situation. At that time, East Germany's GDP was about one-third that of West Germany, and its population was about one-fourth. The integration cost enormous amounts of money, after which the German economy deteriorated.
In the Korean reunification, South Korea's GDP per capita is about 30,000 dollars: about 3.3 million yen, and the population is about 50 million. On the other hand, North Korea's GDP per capita is 1800 dollars: about 200,000 yen, and the population is said to be about 25 million.
Considering that GDP is less than 1/10 and the population ratio is 1: 2, it can be seen that the pain caused by unification is not the ratio of Germany.
After the unification, the communist (dictatorship) North Korea and the capitalist (liberal / democratic) South Korea have completely different systems. It is unclear whether the system will be divided by two to create a system similar to that of China, but the difference between rich and poor and the drastic deterioration of public security are inevitable.
It is theoretically possible to unify, but it is expected that it will not be possible to come to terms with the north-south speculation. Even if it does happen, the consequences are waiting for many to be unhappy.
